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Rents fall after market 'flooded'
The demand for rental properties is increasing across Wales An increase in
the number of properties being put up for rent in Wales is pushing rents down,
the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has said.
The number of new instructions to let flats and houses has risen 57% over
the quarter, a RICS lettings survey found.
This has been mainly due to would-be sellers flooding the rental market
with unsellable properties.
This huge influx has applied a downward pressure on rents with RICS
expecting them to fall in the future.
The figures were released in the RICS lettings survey which also
highlighted how demand for rental property remained positive over the last
quarter.
This is because property sales are at their lowest level since records
began as banks continue to limit the number of mortgages to prospective
homeowners and buyers.
Competitive market
A total of 36% more chartered surveyors in Wales reported a rise than a
fall in rental demand, up 2% on the previous quarter.
RICS Wales director Cathy McLean said: "The market place has become
more and more competitive as many vendors have been forced to become amateur
landlords, creating an inevitable downward pressure on rents where supply has
matched demand.
"With national average house prices set to weaken in 2009, yields may
increase for those investors who can provide the right product for the right
market place."
Beverley Morgan, of Beverley Morgan & Company in Cwmbran added:
"There seems to be an oversupply of rental properties and a lack of
confidence from prospective tenants.
"The rental values have remained the same, although in some cases
landlords are prepared to take less than the asking price."
John Pinn of Maverick Property Management in Cardiff agreed rents were
being pushed down in some areas of the city, mainly in the centre and Cardiff
Bay, where there are big new developments.
Mr Pinn said: "Where there are new apartments being built every three
months, landlords with older properties are struggling."
But he said he did not see rents being pushed down across the board.
Fixed-rate mortgages on offer at below 4 per cent
Falling interest rates have help make tracker mortgages more attractive to
borrowers. They have doubled their share of the mortgage market in the past
year and lenders ensure they are not inundated with applications for the
products by only offering uncompetitive deals to borrowers with a deposit of
at least 25 per cent.
But home owners may be tempted to consider fixing their monthly payments
with the new deal from Barclays instead as it is the most competitive on the
market, according to experts.
Barclays, which lends under the Woolwich brand, is offering a one-year
fixed rate deal of 3.99 per cent, after which borrowers will switch to a
lifetime tracker of 1.99 per cent above the base rate.
The mortgage is available to people with a 40 per cent deposit who pay a
£995 arrangement fee, although other options are available for people with
only a 30 per cent deposit or those who do not want to pay a set up charge.
Other lenders have offered one-year fixed rate loans in the past, but none
do so at the moment, and the rate is currently the most competitive on the
market.
But experts warned that borrowers are locked into the deal for three years
and will have to pay an early redemption fee of 1 per cent of the amount
borrowed if they want to exit it sooner.
Barclays also today relaunched its offset tracker mortgages, under which
people can use their savings to reduce the interest they pay on their
mortgage.
It is offering rates of 2.09 per cent above base rate for term for people
with a 40 per cent deposit, and 2.49 per cent above it for people with a 30
per cent deposit.
The lender has yet to relaunch its other tracker products, which were
withdrawn last week. And it has also not yet announced whether it will be
reducing its standard variable rate mortgage
Accidental Landlords Having Second Thoughts
The term 'accidental landlords' refers to homeowners who turned to letting
because they couldn't sell their properties - or didn't want to accept reduced
offers - in the subdued housing market.
But, according to a report from Cluttons, the trend looks as if it could be
drawing to a close, with many of these owners now prepared to price their
properties more realistically in order to achieve a sale.
According to Cluttons fifteen per cent of accidental landlords across their
London offices have placed their properties back on the sales market in the
last fortnight. Over the next 2 weeks this is expected to increase by 25 per
cent based on the number of sales valuations they are currently receiving.
This presents some good opportunities for buyers as there will be a greater
supply in London and south easy which combined interest rate cuts
James Hyman, Partner for Residential Sales at Cluttons, comments:
"Those people who need to sell their homes are realising it is not an
option to sit tight and wait for prices to recover.
"This is good news for the sales market, which has been stalled in
part by the reluctance of sellers to recognise that their homes are worth
considerably less than they were a year ago.
"Many sellers, who are not in a position to rent their property out in
the long term, are now accepting that they are better off selling at current
prices, as the market is unlikely to recover to previous heights for some
considerable time.
Prices of homes dropping at fastest rate since 1952
Nationwide said prices fell 14.6% over the past 12
months to £158,872, and dropped 1.4% in the month to October - the 12th
monthly fall in a row.
Economists have predicted that house prices have a lot
further to fall. Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight, said: "Faster
rising unemployment, major concerns over recession and widespread expectations
that house prices will come down further seem set to depress housing market
activity and prices for some considerable time to come."
Nationwide is the first major lender to report on the
state of the market in October and many had hoped that transactions had picked
up after the Bank of England cut interest rates by 50 basis points, to 4.5%,
earlier in the month.
However, analysts said that lower interest rates were
not helping free up the mortgage markets. Ed Stansfield, property economist at
consultants Capital Economics, said: "We expect the Bank of England will
cut interest rates to 1%. With unemployment rising and expectations that house
prices have much further to fall still widespread, lower interest rates will
not stimulate housing demand. Lower interest rates will also do nothing to
loosen mortgage lending criteria."
Bank of England mortgage data this week showed that
mortgage approvals in September were 67% down on the same month a year ago.
Banks and building societies have raised interest rates on mortgages as the
credit crunch worsens.
Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman, Lord Oakeshott,
said: "British house prices and house builders are being hammered by
rising unemployment, as in the 1990s recession. The government must empower
councils and housing associations to spend the £8bn affordable housing
allocation now on buying unsold homes and land at bargain basement
prices."
Housing slump could be over next year, MPs hear
The housing market slump could be over as soon as next
year if the cost of home loans falls by a further half-point, a leading
housing market expert told MPs yesterday.
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley, said
that if mortgage rates stayed at present levels, house prices would fall by
another 5 to 10 per cent and wipe a further £17,000 off the value of an
average home before the market bottomed out next year.
However, Professor Miles, who previously has advised
Gordon Brown said: "If the cost of funding to lenders were to move down
half a point, then the 5 to 10 per cent fall could turn into a much smaller
number, or not much at all." Professor Miles's comments offered some hope
to homeowners of an early end to plummeting prices.
His forecast is more optimistic than those of many other
economists, who forecast that prices will slide by up to 35 per cent before
reaching the bottom.
In a separate report, Andrew Clare, Professor of Asset
Management at Cass Business School, gave an even more dismal prediction,
saying that house prices would slide by 40 per cent and that property values
would not rise to 2007 levels again until 2023.
Professor Miles's comments came as mortgage lenders
reported another dismal month in August, with the number of first-time buyers
taking out a home loan plunging to a record low.
According to figures from the Council of Mortgage
Lenders (CML), only 15,600 mortgages were approved for those climbing on to
the housing ladder in August which is down 55 per cent from the same month
last year.
The housing market is also taking its toll on estate
agents, who are struggling to sell one property a week. The average agent made
just 11.5 sales in the three months to the end of September, the lowest number
since 1978, according to figures from the Royal Institution of Chartered
Surveyors.
A further decline of 10 per cent in house prices would
knock a total of £45,000 off the value of an average home, according to
Halifax house price figures, taking the average property price to about
£155,000. The average house price peaked at close to £200,000 last August.
Professor Miles added that once house prices had fallen
to rock bottom, the number of transactions could pick up "quite
sharply" as buyers returned to the market.
"There is a stand-off in many parts of the country
between people who have got a house to sell and people who have got mortgage
credit and they cannot agree on a price," he said.
Other official figures, which are seen as a less timely
measure of conditions in the housing market, showed a further 2.7per cent fall
in house prices in August.
Rental Demand Keeps Rising
While the credit crunch has made more impact on the
third quarter of the year, an increasing number of landlords reported
"growing or booming demand", says the Paragon Mortgages Trend.
Fifty-one per cent of landlords said rental demands are
rising - double the number compared to a year ago, and the highest proportion
since the survey first introduced the question back in 2004.
And with levels reportedly rising, landlords have become
increasingly optimistic about the future of tenant demand. Nearly 58 per cent
expect demand to grow from its current level compared to 54 per cent in Q2.
Further encouraging signs are the continuing decline in void periods, which
averaged 2.6 weeks in Q3 as opposed to 2.7 weeks in the previous quarter.
John Heron, Paragon Mortgages managing director,
comments: "We are now over a year into the credit crunch and landlords
continue to see growing levels of tenant demand, and this doesn't look like
tailing off over the coming months.
"The private rented sector is playing an important
role in providing housing for those people that can't or aren't prepared to
get on the housing ladder.
"We have seen that the supply of rented properties
has increased as people that would have sold their home decide it rent it out
instead, but where do those people then go on and live? In most cases, in
rented property.
"It's important that the PRS's role in the housing
mix is recognised by Government and that landlords aren't put off from
investing in property through over regulation or an unfavourable tax
regime."
House price fall is smallest in seven months
The average property price is now £172,108, down from
about £200,000 in September last year. This 13.4 per cent annual fall is the
largest decline since Halifax's series began in 1983. Prices in the three
months to September were 12.4 per cent lower than in the same period last
year, which is another record low.
Millions of homeowners received a boost yesterday when
the Bank of England cut interest rates by half a point to 4.5 per cent. Top of
Form
Yesterday's rate cut will knock hundreds of pounds off
their annual mortgage bill.
But some borrowers will have to wait and see if their
lender is going to pass on the rate cut by lowering their SVRs. HBOS, Lloyds
TSB, Barclays and HSBC all said they were cutting their SVR by half a point,
but Nationwide Building Society, Northern Rock and Abbey have yet to make a
decision.
Some experts said that the fact that the drop in prices
in September was the most modest since March indicated that house price falls
may be moderating.
Martin Ellis, chief economist at the Halifax, said:
"The overall price decrease in the three months to September was very
similar to that in the previous quarter, indicating that the trend rate of
decline may be beginning to stabilise."
Capital Economics is forecasting that prices will fall
by 35 per cent from their peak in August last year, while property experts in
the futures market are betting that prices will fall by 30 per cent.
Oliver Gilmartin, senior economist at the Royal
Institute of Chartered Surveyors, gave warning that all but the most cash-rich
first-time buyers, essential to the health of the housing market, would still
find it difficult to secure a mortgage, despite the recent bank bailout.
"A return to the lavish days of bank lending based
on small deposits is not in the offing, with a sluggish economy likely to
raise the incidence of default. Amid this backdrop, conservative loan to value
ratios will remain a barrier to many first time buyers," he said.
The lack of first-time buyers will act as further drag
on house prices as sellers are forced to cut asking prices to secure a sale.
House sales have fallen to historically low levels, as
buyers struggle to secure homeloans.
Investors look to property amid market turmoil
Furthermore Lindsay Cuthill of Savills estate agents
received an enquiry from a businessman about purchasing a mews house in
Chelsea, who said he felt that his money is safer in property than in the
banks.
Buyers are struggling in today's market due to the
mortgage drought but investors who have ready cash are in a stronger position
to negotiate price reductions than those who require a mortgage.
Nervous sellers will be happy to reduce the asking price
as much as 20% if a buyer has cash, according to Mr Bailey.
Furthermore, this group of people are able to sit tight
amid the housing market uncertainty until house prices begin to recover.
The Halifax reported yesterday that UK house prices
experienced a fall of 1.3% in September. According to the Halifax, a further
£2,000 has been wiped off the value of an average home, taking the average
cost to £172,108, similar to the average price of a UK home in January 2006.
Commenting on the figures, Martin Ellis, chief economist
at the Halifax, said the price fall in the three months to September was very
similar to that in the previous quarter, suggesting that the trend rate of
decline may be beginning to stabilise.
However, he added that conditions will still remain
challenging in the market due to the reduction in the availability of home
loans.
Landlords: Watch Out For This £200 Fine!
Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) detailing the energy efficiency of a
property become compulsory on rented property from 1st October . An EPC is
currently valid for 10 years and can be reused as many times as required
within that period.
Landlords do not have to commission a new EPC each time a new tenancy
starts but they are required to give a copy of the latest EPC to new tenants.
The bad news Any landlords renting out a property must provide prospective
tenants with one of these EPCs or face a fine of £200 and be unable to market
or rent out their property..
The good news Over a quarter of landlords (27%) surveyed by Paragon
Mortgages said they are planning to obtain an EPC before the 1st October
deadline.
EPC offer landlords an advantage over their peers that have less energy
efficient properties. Landlords with the most energy efficient homes could
result in more interest from tenants. Those whose properties rate badly could
face a lack of interested tenants and subsequent fall in rental income.
The EPC not only provides details of the energy efficiency and the
properties environmental impact, it also provides estimated running costs,
information which will now factor in tenants' decision making process, and
could be used as a bargaining tool if the home has received a poor rating.
In other words, if your property is energy-efficient, an EPC could give you
an advantage over other landlords.
What is the point of an EPC?
While measures which could be taken to improve the property's energy
efficiency and environmental impact rating are highlighted in the certificate,
landlords are not obliged to make any of the changes suggested on the EPC.
How much does an EPC cost?
This can vary - the Nationwide subsidiary The Mortgage Works announced last
week that it is offering free EPCs to landlords to help them comply with
legislation.
The Lender, in conjunction with Energy Reports and Surveys Limited, will
offer landlords who are remortgaging on selected products a free energy
performance certificate (EPC). The package also includes free legal fees and a
free valuation.
The National Landlords Association will provide landlords with EPCs for
£69 including VAT per certificate.
And Paragon Mortgages, which is offering the certificates for £85 each,
has produced an interactive guide for landlords on EPCs: 'The Landlords' Guide
to EPCs'.
Wait and see
Like the majority of landlords, you may intend to wait until your existing
tenant leaves before you get an EPC however you may not be allowed to market
your property. The only way to be in a position to move quickly is to have the
EPC already in place. And remember the £200 fine can be issued an unlimited
number of times, not just once.
Risky and reckless
Finally, Paragon Mortgages' survey also noted that with just one week to
go, 81% of landlords hadn't obtained an EPC for any of their rental
properties, with only 5% having obtained the certificates for all of the
properties in their portfolio. The National Landlords Association (NLA) has
said that the total amount of fines for UK landlords could exceed £500m.
A further 8% of landlords are prepared to take the risk and wait until an
enforcement officer contacts them before obtaining the EPC, and a reckless 11%
of respondents said they had no intention of obtaining an EPC for any of their
properties.
Getting a good rating with low running costs will make your property stand
out to cash-strapped tenants and that could mean the difference between
letting the property quickly or facing a lengthy void period. In other words,
the certificate could pay for itself.
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